Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 19.840664 23.930416 28.460213 33.823118 39.971389 46.771851 54.833640
2025-03-09 13.655604 18.909847 25.363638 33.756000 44.252760 56.814930 72.839691
2025-03-16 9.511290 14.811519 21.903839 31.839524 45.120583 61.965104 84.607585
2025-03-23 7.739294 13.268079 21.191254 32.949603 49.471678 71.336382 101.848948
2025-03-30 6.043438 11.398203 19.601227 32.456513 51.370471 77.378562 114.898453
2025-04-06 5.250250 10.728089 19.593519 34.108088 56.249409 87.609271 134.006054
2025-04-13 3.860168 8.729607 17.166484 31.730248 54.918794 88.912954 140.686535
2025-04-20 3.269461 8.022273 16.711864 32.335078 58.026587 96.664652 156.773284
2025-04-27 2.827730 7.497016 16.472711 33.221564 61.574443 105.191846 174.322393
2025-05-04 2.492722 7.111792 16.415306 34.375759 65.583670 114.570511 193.496732
2025-05-11 2.154167 6.635288 16.104246 35.021079 68.754760 122.765988 211.191864
2025-05-18 1.783225 5.984474 15.342222 34.739857 70.297229 128.425475 225.191473
2025-05-25 1.397001 5.220208 14.303954 33.985730 71.255431 133.677701 239.610231
2025-06-01 1.125864 4.677096 13.655164 33.933705 73.502604 141.255934 258.249328
2025-06-08 0.807961 3.854764 12.189703 32.010015 72.120558 142.644750 266.959033
2025-06-15 0.698600 3.657629 12.180552 33.124925 76.491459 154.003744 292.379083
2025-06-22 0.544255 3.224792 11.479462 32.629725 77.696126 159.904483 308.970412
2025-06-29 0.489918 3.154290 11.726596 34.288359 83.244590 173.699391 339.323363
2025-07-06 0.331493 2.541385 10.315333 31.900334 80.438871 172.379621 343.913489
2025-07-13 0.277141 2.374073 10.166350 32.507769 83.816655 182.425535 368.410284
2025-07-20 0.236832 2.253274 10.134660 33.398055 87.841681 193.833167 395.671425
2025-07-27 0.206697 2.169967 10.206460 34.557167 92.512267 206.636043 425.808199
2025-08-03 0.173205 2.039266 10.089192 35.205223 96.104895 217.541834 452.928298